UNO Study: Fertility Rate Gap Between Races, Ethnicities is Shrinking

OMAHA – A study from the University of Nebraska at Omaha’s (UNO) Center for Public Affairs Research (CPAR) has found that, based on recently released data on births from 2013, U.S. fertility rates among major racial and ethnic groups are now much more similar than in the recent past. This is in contrast to the perception that Hispanic fertility rates are vastly above those among Whites and Blacks.

The data, which was released Jan. 15 by the National Center for Health Statistics, shows Hispanic births in the U.S. have declined each year from 2007 to 2013. The 2013 U.S. fertility rate among Hispanics stands at 73 births per thousand women aged 15-44, which is down from 98 in 2006, prior to the economic downturn, and 108 in 1990. The U.S. fertility rate among Black non-Hispanics was 65 in 2013, only an eight-point difference versus the Hispanic rate, the smallest difference in at least 25 years. Prior to the recession, the Black fertility rate was nearly 30 points below the Hispanic rate.

The report also shows that the U.S. White non-Hispanic fertility rate has held relatively stable since 1990, at around 60 births per thousand women of reproductive age. That said, since 2007 the fertility rate among Whites has declined slightly, from 61 in 2007, prior to the recession, to 59 in 2013. The current rate for Whites is only a 14-point difference compared to the Hispanic rate, whereas it was 45 points below in 1990.

“This shift in fertility rates is simply not getting enough attention,” explained David Drozd, a demographer with CPAR, who compiled and analyzed the figures. “U.S. births among Hispanic mothers neared 1.1 million in 2007, but barely exceeded 900,000 in 2013. The changes are challenging some of our assumptions as we project the population into the future. Even if the decline in Hispanic births is temporary and rebounds as the economy recovers, it will take years for fertility rates to climb toward pre-recession levels and the lower fertility rates, especially among Hispanics, might become the new normal.”

The shift in rates is having a sizeable impact in the total number of children women would tend to have over their lifetimes. In the early 1990s, a group of 1,000 Hispanic women would have been expected to have nearly 3,000 children during their lifetime (3.0 children per woman). Now the expected number of children would be about 2,150, or just above the 2,100 needed to replace the existing population (2.1 births per woman to replace herself and the father factoring in mortality is a demographic standard).

Total fertility rates for Black non-Hispanic women in the U.S. were above the replacement level in 2008, but have fallen below that number with 1.88 children expected over the course of a lifetime. Expected lifetime births have also fallen for White non-Hispanic women from 1.91 in 2007 to 1.75 in 2013. U.S. White non-Hispanic births have been below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman for decades.

Another finding is that Nebraska’s fertility rates have consistently been above the U.S. average since 2000, and in 2013 reached a new high of being 16 percent above the U.S. rate. The number of births has also trended upward since 1997, peaking in 2008 at an average of 76 births per thousand women of reproductive age.

Similar to the national trend, the fertility rate among Hispanics in Nebraska has greatly declined, from 130 in 2005 to 94 in 2013. The Nebraska Black non-Hispanic fertility rate in 2013 of 95 births per thousand women aged 15-44 slightly exceeded the Hispanic rate, after having been 50 points below the Hispanic rate in the late 1990s. The fertility rate of Nebraska White non-Hispanics has held steady since 2006 at 68, and while still trailing the Nebraska Hispanic rate by a sizeable margin, the rates are much more similar today than in earlier years.