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Bracketology and Baseball

Andrew Swift

UNO math professor Andrew Swift is picking LSU to win it all at the 2015 CWS

It should be no surprise to any sports fan that math is as much a part of sports as balls, bats, nets and helmets.

That is where Dr. Andrew Swift comes in. An associate professor of Mathematics at UNO, Swift has made a habit of predicting major college sporting events, including March Madness and the College World Series, which begins in Omaha on Saturday, June 13.

From the more than 300 Division I baseball teams who started the year with hopes of reaching the Greatest Show on Dirt, only eight remain:

  • No. 1 Miami

  • No. 4 LSU

  • No. 6 Florida

  • No. 7 TCU

  • No. 13 Vanderbilt

  • No. 21 Virginia

  • No. 23 Cal State Fullerton

  • No. 34 Arkansas


In order to figure out the likely winner, Swift first has to determine the strength of each team. To do this, he uses a formula that calculates a strength rating based on a team’s victories and losses against other Division I teams.

Last year, Swift picked TCU as the overall winner before any of the games had been played; however, after the first round, he quickly - and correctly - changed his pick to Vanderbilt, who won the title despite being ranked behind four other teams in the tournament.

For Swift to determine the probability of each team to win the College World Series, he ran the tournament, based on seeding, over 300,000 times through a computer program. By determining the likelihood of higher-ranked teams defeating lower-ranked teams, or vice versa, he determined the likelihood of each team coming away with the top prize.

At the start of the series, Swift said that LSU had nearly twice the chance, at 34.9 percent, to be this year's winner compared to the next highest contender, Florida, which as a 17.67 percent chance. Ultimately, the winner will either be Virginia (2.64 percent chance) or last year's champion - Vanderbilt (9.98 percent chance).


The following lists include Swift's original predictions with updates to reflect which teams have been eliminated:

Overall Winner

  1. LSU - 34.91% (Eliminated)

  2. Florida - 17.67% (Eliminated)

  3. Miami FL - 14.15% (Eliminated)

  4. TCU - 13.89% (Eliminated)

  5. Vanderbilt - 9.98%

  6. Arkansas - 4.70% (Eliminated)

  7. Virginia - 2.64%

  8. Cal State Fullerton - 2.06% (Eliminated)


The 2015 CWS Championship matchup is Virgina versus Vanderbuilt, which, according to Swift's original predictions, was just a 2 percent likelihood. The original choice from Swift was Florida v. LSU.

Championship Matchups

  1. Florida vs LSU - 19.40% (Both Eliminated)

  2. Miami FL vs LSU - 16.42% (Both Eliminated)

  3. Florida vs TCU - 9.30% (Both Eliminated)

  4. Arkansas vs LSU - 8.55% (Both Eliminated)

  5. Miami FL vs TCU - 8.14% (Both Eliminated)

  6. Florida vs Vanderbilt - 7.89% (Florida Eliminated)

  7. Miami FL vs Vanderbilt - 6.50% (Miami Eliminated)

  8. Virginia vs LSU - 5.41% (LSU Eliminated)

  9. Arkansas vs TCU - 3.98% (Both Eliminated)

  10. Arkansas vs Vanderbilt - 3.42% (Arkansas Eliminated)

  11. Virginia vs TCU - 2.65% (TCU Eliminated)

  12. Florida vs Cal State Fullerton - 2.39% (Cal State Eliminated)

  13. Virginia vs Vanderbilt - 2.19% (CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH)

  14. Miami FL vs Cal State Fullerton - 2.05% (Both Eliminated)

  15. Arkansas vs Cal State Fullerton - 1.01%(Both Eliminated)

  16. Virginia vs Cal State Fullerton - 0.70% (Both Eliminated)

While we may not know the likelihood of Swift's predictions until the very end of the series, Swift also predicted the likely winners of each of the first round of games, with only Forida and Vanderbuilt emerging as correct choices:

First Game Predictions

  • Virginia (44.67%) vs Arkansas (55.33%)

    • Miami FL (47.67%) vs Florida (52.33%)

      • TCU (39.27%) vs LSU (60.73%)

        • Cal State Fullerton (36.53%) vs Vanderbilt (63.47%)


As the games progress, keep checking in - we will keep an updated tally on how well Dr. Swift's predictions fare this year!