What links conspiracy theories and violence?

The Link Between Conspiracy Theories and Violence

So What?

The COVID-19 pandemic, online platforms, and increasing acceptance of fringe beliefs have contributed to a general mainstreaming of conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies. Left unchecked, these issues threaten to undermine the fundamental trust on which democracy is built.

Project Summary

This project will seek to understand the prevalence of conspiracy theories within the United States, their connection to terrorism, and how they evolve over time. We do this by providing comprehensive guidance on factors that increase or mitigate the link between conspiracy beliefs and violence and by examining the predictive effects of conspiracy beliefs on violent outcomes.

Purpose/Objectives

As conspiracy theories have become increasingly connected to major acts of violence within the U.S., there has been a significant concern around nihilistic ideologies that have benefited from the widespread dissemination of conspiracy theories. This project also seeks to help identify potential methods for successfully countering and preventing the mobilization of violence based on conspiracy theories.

Method

This project will conduct longitudinal surveys within the U.S. to understand the prevalence of conspiracy theories and nihilistic ideologies. These surveys will be conducted between 2023 and 2025 to understand how conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies change over time. The surveys cover a range of key factors that increase or mitigate violent outcomes for conspiracy theories. Analyzing those factors will allow us to assess their functional roles to help inform how we can best allocate resources for terrorism prevention.

Reports and Publications

	Preventing U.S. Election Violence: Countering the Harmful Effects of Election Conspiracy Theories This handout outlines the results of the research team's survey, which identified risk and protective factors for willingness to engage in election-motivated violence.
	The Relationship Between Language Use and Conspiracy Beliefs This research brief discusses commonalities in language used by those with conspiracy mentality.

Research Team

	Paul Gill, Ph.D. University College London Professor Department of Security and Crime Science Expertise: Putative risk and protective factors for violent extremism
	Bettina Rottweiler, Ph.D. University College London Postdoctoral fellow Department of Security and Crime Science Expertise: Risk and protective factors for violent extremism, the effects of conspiracy theories within violent extremist group and ideologies
	Isabelle Van der Vegt, Ph.D. Utrecht University Assistant Professor Department of Sociology Expertise: Understanding online extremism and threats of violence using computational linguistics.