What links conspiracy theories and violent extremist ideologies?

The Link Between Conspiracy Theories and Extremism

So What?

The COVID-19 pandemic, social media, and increasing acceptance of fringe beliefs from high-profile figures have contributed to a general mainstreaming of conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies. Left unchecked, these issues threaten to undermine the fundamental trust on which democracy is built.

Project Summary

This project will seek to understand the prevalence of domestic conspiracy theories within the United States, their connection to domestic extremism, and how they evolve over the course of a presidential election cycle. We do this by providing comprehensive guidance on risk and protective factors for conspiracy beliefs and violent extremism, and by examining the predictive effects of conspiracy beliefs on different violent extremist outcomes.

Purpose/Objectives

As conspiracy theories have become increasingly connected to major acts of violence within the U.S., there has been a significant concern around ideologies, such as anti-government and anti-authority violent extremism (AGAAVE), that have benefited from the widespread dissemination of conspiracy theories and beliefs. This project not only seeks to understand the overlap between extremism and conspiracy theories, but also to help identify potential methods for successfully countering and preventing the mobilization of violence based on conspiracy theories.

Method

This project will conduct longitudinal surveys within the U.S. to understand the prevalence of conspiracy theories and domestic extremist ideologies. These surveys will be conducted from a year out from the 2024 presidential election through to a few months after the official announcement of a winner to understand how conspiracy theories and domestic extremist ideologies change over the course of the electoral cycle. The surveys cover a range of key risk and protective factors for different violent extremist outcomes and for conspiracy beliefs. Analyzing those factors will allow us to assess their functional roles to help inform how we can best allocate resources for terrorism prevention.

Reports and Publications

	Preventing U.S. Election Violence: Countering the Harmful Effects of Election Conspiracy Theories This handout outlines the results of the research team's survey, which identified risk and protective factors for willingness to engage in election-motivated violence.
	The Relationship Between Language Use and Conspiracy Beliefs This research brief discusses commonalities in language used by those with conspiracy mentality.

Research Team

	Paul Gill, Ph.D. University College London Professor Department of Security and Crime Science Expertise: Putative risk and protective factors for violent extremism
	Bettina Rottweiler, Ph.D. University College London Postdoctoral fellow Department of Security and Crime Science Expertise: Risk and protective factors for violent extremism, the effects of conspiracy theories within violent extremist group and ideologies
	Isabelle Van der Vegt, Ph.D. Utrecht University Assistant Professor Department of Sociology Expertise: Understanding online extremism and threats of violence using computational linguistics.