What are the best tools and approaches for measuring threats and informing decision-makers in threat assessment?

Establishing Best Practices for Threat Assessment Measurement and Models

So What?

Today’s terrorism threat is particularly pernicious given how diffuse it is both in perpetrator and in target. Reducing the potential for harm, therefore, must occur on two fronts — making valid assessments of the potential threats using scientifically grounded and valid tools, and better securing soft targets, which require a lower level of sophistication for attack and tend to be especially vulnerable.

Summary

This project creates materials outlining best practices for prevention and intervention using lessons from the United Kingdom, law enforcement, and assessment of emerging and insider threats.

Purpose/Objectives

This project is divided into three main tasks:

1. Evaluate prevention programming and identify best practices by allies abroad.
2. Evaluate soft target security and approaches for quantifying potential vulnerabilities.
3. Evaluate current threat assessments and threat management tools.

Method

A variety of methods will be used for each task.

Task 1

1. Evaluate current prevention programs, domestic and international
2. Research best practices in interventions, reintegration, and counter-recidivism

Task 2

1. State of the science review
2. Simulation modeling and analysis

Task 3

1. State of the science review
2. Panel interview
3. Case study analyses of successful attacks and thwarted plots
4. Practitioner survey

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Reports and Publications

	Threat and Risk Assessment Measurement: A State of the Science Review This document examines existing DHS threat assessment tools, determining if and how they work, what conditions are needed for success, what needs to be implemented, and the cost of using these tools.
	A Directory of Threat Assessment Models This directory reviews how threat assessment is practically implemented in various settings by systematically reviewing case study literature that describes the structure and operations of existing threats assessment teams and models.
	Understanding Insider Threats: Learning from Related Research Streams This state-of-science review summarizes practitioner-oriented and behavioral and social science literature related to insider threats.
	Malicious Insider Threats: An Overview This report provides an overview of insider threats and behavioral threat assessment and management.
	Examining Best Practices in Threat Assessment from an Insider Threat Perspective The report examines behavioral threat assessment from an insider threat perspective through a review of existing literature.

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Research Team

	Sam Hunter, Ph.D. University of Nebraska at Omaha Regents-Foundation Professor of Industrial/Organizational Psychology College of Arts and Sciences Head of Strategic Operations Expertise: Leadership in organizations, malevolent creativity and innovation, organizational behavior
	Paul Gill, Ph.D. University College London Professor Department of Security and Crime Science Expertise: Putative risk and protective factors for violent extremism