What is the threat of electoral violence in the U.S., and how does it impact workers involved in elections?

Innovating a threat monitor for election-motivated violence

So What?

One of three election officials said they felt unsafe in a 2021 survey, and threats to public officials are on the rise. While still over a year away, the 2024 election is a concern for election officials who wonder about violent extremists seeking to disrupt crucial U.S. democratic processes.

Project Summary

Using a combination of interviews with election officials and sentiment analysis of social media sites, this project intends to understand where the tipping point from election-related discourse to election-motivated violence occurs.

Purpose/Objectives

This project seeks to not only understand electoral violence in the U.S. and the impact it has on election officials, but also how to assess the transition from political discourse to election-motivated violence. This project will also assess the risk of online exposure for election officials and identify ways they can reduce it. The research team will develop a threat level monitor and an educational module to teach electoral officials about cyber hygiene.

Method

This project will have three convergent research branches that will include both qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The first will use semi-structured interviews with former and current electoral officials to understand the nature of electoral violence, risk of exposure, and potential barriers to suspicious activity reporting. The second branch will use red-teaming to better understand the vulnerabilities of electoral officials and staff. The research team will also review materials provided to electoral officials and staff about cyber hygiene. The third branch will bring it all together with a threat-level monitor to assess the risk to voting officials and staff.

Outputs and Impact

• Guidance for election officials in formulating actionable intelligence estimates
• Development of a threat-level monitor
• Educational module to teach electoral officials and staff about cyber hygiene, ways people may attempt to gather information on them, and ways to keep them from finding anything of substance.

	Adan Vela, Ph.D. University of Central Florida Assistant Professor Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems Expertise: Decision support systems
	Steven Windisch, Ph.D. University of Arkansas Assistant Professor of Sociology and Criminology Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences Expertise: Violence, white supremacy, hate crimes