Deterrence Analysis
Multi-actor deterrence is a complex system with multiple state and nonstate actors with conflicting and common interests, each with different strengths and weaknesses. These actors operate within a new security environment in which nuclear proliferation, cyber and space threats, and regional and hybrid conflicts simultaneously exist and influence their decision-making processes.
Cyber Red Lines: Government Responses to Cyberattacks on Critical Infrastructure
Denise Tennant, Louis Nolan, Deanna House, 2024
University of Nebraska at Omaha, College of IS&T; United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM); Joint Warfare Analysis Center (JWAC)
While the concept of red lines is relatively well-documented and discussed in areas of research surrounding deterrence and acts of war, the term cyber red lines is rather complicated and fairly immature in the research. Recognizing the ongoing challenges surrounding the red line term in a cyber context, this article seeks to define such a threshold within gray-zone cyber operations to determine an appropriate situation when the US Department of Defense could and should respond to state or nonstate actor operations that manifest as a cyberattack. The article also seeks to clarify what is meant by the term cyber gray zone.
Behind the curve: technology challenges facing the homeland intelligence and counterterrorism workforce
Michelle Black, Lana Obradovic, Deanna House, 2024
University of Nebraska at Omaha, College of Arts and Sciences, College of IS&T
Those charged with protecting the homeland through intelligence analysis, particularly in counterterrorism, must be capable of rapidly adopting innovative technologies to detect and prevent exploitation and disruption of vulnerable critical infrastructures. However, implementing these responses requires a highly skilled technical workforce that is continually provided with timely educational and training programs. Yet, questions remain regarding the technical aptitude necessary to respond to today’s terrorism threats and the Department of Homeland Security’s ability to provide consistent and rigorous standards for technology training and education. By surveying analysts, we examine what, if any, educational and training programs have been provided to adapt and remain technologically competitive and effectively utilize emerging technologies. We find a distinct need to focus on improvements that involve clarifying terms, building a technology and cybersecurity roadmap for analysts, allocating additional training time for employees, and building partnerships with private industry.
Teaching Deterrence: A 21st-Century Update
Lana Obradovic & Michelle Black, 2019
University of Nebraska at Omaha, College of Arts and Sciences
Although deterrence was one of the cornerstones of the international relations field for much of the 20th century, today surveys demonstrate that most students lack even a basic understanding of this concept. Yet, in the light of recent events on the Korean Peninsula, in China, and the post-Soviet space, our civilian and military leaders continue to emphasize the need to develop and foster critical and strategic thinking on deterrence. In this essay, we ask how we can nurture the next generation of strategic thinkers and leaders without deliberately leaving teaching “defense” concepts to the military. We propose updating our reading lists to include the emerging and innovative literature on deterring 21st-century threats, and teaching with current policy documents, problem-based learning, and simulations. More specifically, we suggest strengthening students’ critical thinking and writing skills through collaborative research projects and encouraging experiential learning opportunities
Multi-Actor Deterrence: Defining the Concept
Lana Obradovic & Michelle Black, 2022
University of Nebraska at Omaha, College of Arts and Sciences
The former Cold War conceptualization of deterrence and complex security realities have diverged over the past three decades. Rather than understand deterrence as a single actor’s decision calculus concerning their costs and benefits in a dyadic context, current US strategies and plans must work within a complex, multiplayer scenario that demands analysis through a multi-actor deterrence concept lens. Multi-actor deterrence is a complex system with multiple state and nonstate actors with conflicting and common interests, each with different strengths and weaknesses. These actors operate within a new security environment in which nuclear proliferation, cyber and space threats, and regional and hybrid conflicts simultaneously exist and influence their decision-making processes.
Identifying leader's intent: an analysis of Kim Jong-Un
Heather Kearney & Michelle Black, 2020
University of Nebraska at Omaha, Political Science; United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM)
One of the most challenging tasks for a deterrence planner is assessing a leader’s intent, which requires having an in-depth level of subject-matter expertise. This article investigates this challenge and offers answers to the following question “how can we identify a leader’s intent” to aid deterrence planners, operators, and policymakers? To examine this question, we used a multi-method approach by performing several qualitative analyses on Kim Jong-Un’s New Year’s Eve speeches (2013–2018). We focused on techniques that assessed the underlying facets of intent (e.g. cognitive beliefs and goals). These speeches served as a viable secondary source that identified objective markers to which we applied a coding scheme to extract the adversary’s “intent” to perform a particular action. This article argues that identifying intent can help policy-makers and planners understand if an adversary has plans to perform specific operations.
Examining and Enhancing Deterrence Education for Future Leaders
Douglas Kaupa & L. Martin Hahn, 2020
Air University
Our nation’s future leaders must be prepared for increasingly complex threats and world-wide challenges. Education provides the key to strengthening preparedness. According to the US House of Representatives—Committee on Armed Services, “professional military education is the backbone in the development of the nation’s armed forces, and the quality of that military education distinguishes U.S. forces around the world.” Without integrated and updated education, future leaders may miscalculate situations, leaving the US insignificant in world events. In the US military, professional military education (PME) is a key component in preparing both military and civilian leaders. Such civilian leaders are colleagues from the Department of State and the Department of Homeland Security who attend PME institutes.